Anything priced below $1 million is hot property in Brisbane.

Analysis of the 10 best and worst performing suburbs over the past year in Brisbane highlights the continued huge demand for units and for houses priced below the city’s median dwelling value of $992,864.

Only two suburbs recorded an annual house value gain of more than 20 per cent, while all ten of the top unit performers did so (as highlighted in the four tables below, provided exclusively to API Magazine by Cotality).

The unit sector has outperformed houses since the beginning of 2024.

Top 10 capital growth performers – Units

Suburb Median value 12 month change 5 year change
Caboolture $543,696 25.1% 117.1%
Hillcrest $568,451 23.8% 150.2%
Goodna $551,297 22.7% 146.5%
Bowen Hills $681,855 21.6% 63.1%
Marsden $713,697 20.8% 120.1%
Kippa-Ring $624,093 20.8% 99.3%
Burpengary $608,202 20.6% 119.0%
Newstead $946,769 20.5% 62.3%
Dinmore $576,876 20.3% 120.5%
Kooralbyn $380,225 20.1% 138.1%

Cotality Research Director, Tim Lawless, told API Magazine that Brisbane’s housing value growth trends have been skewed towards the lower quartile and broad ‘middle’ of the market where price points are more aligned with household incomes and borrowing capacity.

“Over the past 12 months, lower quartile house values have recorded a 13 per cent rise while upper quartile values are up a smaller 7.9 per cent.

“A similar trend can be seen across the unit sector where lower quartile values are up 17.6 per cent over the past year and upper quartile values are 12.2 per cent higher.

“Given Brisbane dwelling values have surged 82.5 per cent higher over the past five years, housing affordability has gone from being far healthier than the national average to a market where housing affordability is now stretched, tracking above the national average since mid-2024,” Mr Lawless said.

Top 10 capital growth performers – Houses

Suburb Median value 12 month change 5 year change
Chermside $1,202,155 21.1% 79.0%
Lamb Island $515,718 20.0% 82.7%
Samford Village $1,488,468 19.8% 92.0%
Churchill $720,583 18.9% 129.5%
Chermside West $1,218,521 17.5% 87.2%
Basin Pocket $669,726 17.3% 119.0%
Ferny Grove $1,236,942 17.2% 93.8%
Mansfield $1,375,000 17.1% 92.6%
Macleay Island $558,167 17.0% 84.3%
Beachmere $880,126 16.9% 71.8%

Median apartment prices in the Queensland capital are now the second highest nationally, after Sydney, while median house prices rank third after Sydney and Canberra.

The Brisbane real estate market’s sustained price growth raises the question of whether an affordability limit will be reached soon to slow it down.

That appears unlikely, according to Will Silk, Residential Research Lead, JLL Australia.

“The Brisbane property market has recorded exceptional price and rental growth over the past three years and continues to display strong quarterly gains among Australia’s capitals.

“Ongoing supply constraints, driven by labour shortages and major infrastructure works, are likely to keep upward pressure on housing.

“While affordability challenges may exclude some buyers, this often redirects demand into the rental market, attracting investors and sustaining prices.

“Overall, unaffordability alone is unlikely to materially dampen Brisbane’s market in the short term.”

The weakest markets for house value growth all have a median value that is above the Greater Brisbane benchmark of $1.09 million.

Lowest 10 capital growth performers – Houses

Suburb Median value 12 month change 5 year change
Albion $1,143,427 -8.8% 34.9%
Wooloowin $1,566,598 -5.0% 68.8%
Anstead $1,618,459 -3.7% 63.9%
Hamilton $2,310,105 -2.2% 40.1%
Greenslopes $1,322,908 -2.1% 63.4%
St Lucia $1,873,672 -1.7% 60.3%
Chelmer $1,685,702 -0.4% 53.8%
Sherwood $1,550,147 0.8% 67.4%
Fig Tree Pocket $1,925,754 1.0% 52.6%
Lutwyche $1,467,713 1.5% 60.5%

Continued high demand for those lower priced properties appeared more likely than overall price containment.

“As prices continue to rise, buyer activity naturally gravitates toward more affordable segments of the market and in Brisbane, this has been reflected in greater demand for smaller homes and apartments,” Mr Silk told API Magazine.

Expanded federal first home buyer assistance will likely add further demand pressure in these segments.

“Given these factors, growth in Brisbane’s lower and middle price tiers is expected to continue into 2026, maintaining their leadership in overall market performance.”

George Kafantaris, Managing Director, CBS Property Group, said unit performance is likely to remain solid in the short term.

“Affordability challenges, strong investor interest and reinvigorated demand for well-located medium-density housing continues to support the sector, particularly near transport, universities and major employment hubs.

Mr Lawless, however, questioned whether the pace of growth could continue.

“It’s fair to say the pace of growth is likely to prove unsustainable.

Further rate cuts are looking less certain and housing affordability and loan serviceability factors will eventually see the growth trend start to ease.”

Lowest 10 capital growth performers – Units

Suburb Median value 12 month change 5 year change
Oxley $698,491 3.7% 72.6%
Park Ridge $821,092 4.4% 97.3%
Wynnum West $742,373 4.8% 67.1%
Raceview $496,178 4.9% 74.3%
Norman Park $906,576 6.0% 79.1%
Manly $880,738 6.1% 54.3%
Hawthorne $924,081 6.1% 78.0%
Everton Hills $890,156 6.9% 79.8%
Logan Reserve $801,383 7.3% 97.8%
Richlands $686,507 7.8% 82.9%

Brisbane’s 2026 hotspots

Even if capital growth levels out in 2026, there’s the near-certainty that many suburbs will outperform the wider market and deliver high double-digit growth.

Mr Kafantaris identified seven suburbs he believed would be bright spots in the city next year. They were:

ChermsideA major activity centre with strong amenity, transport access and ongoing densification. Unit yields remain attractive and rental demand is consistently high.

NundahOffers excellent connectivity (rail and airport), strong rental demand and low vacancy rates. A historically stable suburb with continued appeal for both investors and young professionals.

TarragindiAn established, tightly held, family-oriented suburb with limited new supply. It has character homes, good school catchments and steady demand to support long-term growth.

SpringwoodA more affordable option with strong growth outlook, improved infrastructure links and amenity upgrades. Appeals to both homeowners and investors seeking value.

MoorookaStill one of the more affordable inner-south locations with genuine gentrification momentum. Improving transport and lifestyle options provide long-term upside. Flood mapping checks are recommended.

PaddingtonA premium, low-supply, character-rich suburb with exceptional lifestyle appeal. Strong demand from professionals and families supports ongoing capital growth.

OxleyWell-connected via rail and major roads, with improving amenity and comparatively affordable entry prices. Solid choice for long-term investors, though flood risk should always be checked.

Mr Silk said many Brisbane suburbs remained attractive to investors and owner-occupiers, particularly those offering strong connectivity to the central city, established amenities, or lifestyle appeal.

“Inner-city areas and well-serviced middle-ring suburbs generally maintain strong value through market cycles.

“Locations close to transport, employment centres and schools continue to appeal as the city’s population and infrastructure network expand.”

 

Article Q&A

Why are Brisbane homes under $1 million in such strong demand?

Properties priced below the city’s median dwelling value attract the widest pool of buyers, align better with borrowing capacity, and offer more attainable entry points. This segment continues to record the strongest growth across both houses and units.

Are Brisbane units outperforming houses in 2024–25?

Yes. Unit values have risen faster than house values, with all of the top-performing unit suburbs recording annual gains above 20 per cent. Lower purchase prices, strong rental demand and affordability pressures are drawing more buyers into the unit market.

Is Brisbane’s property boom likely to slow down soon?

Analysts say affordability pressures may eventually temper growth, but ongoing supply shortages, population increases and infrastructure works are expected to keep upward pressure on prices in the short term.

Which Brisbane suburbs are expected to be hotspots in 2026?

Property experts highlight Chermside, Nundah, Tarragindi, Springwood, Moorooka, Paddington and Oxley as likely outperformers in 2026 due to their amenity, connectivity, lifestyle appeal and relative affordability.

Sydney’s property market is among the most expensive in the world, with only Hong Kong outpointing it as the least affordable property market on the planet.

There are few signs of that situation reversing any time soon.

While it is uniformly expensive, with its $1.24 million median dwelling value far beyond the other state capitals, the past 12 months have delivered wildly different results throughout the city.

And for property investors trying to assess which suburbs will deliver the best capital growth prospects over the coming year, it is a disparate list of hotspots that have caught the eye of a range of commentators who shared their forecasts with API Magazine.

Among the ten best and worst house and unit markets (see four tables below, provided exclusively to API Magazine by Cotality) there were some distinct trends that were specific to each housing type.

For houses, both the best and worst lists had a wide range of median prices. While all are expensive by national standards, the fact the biggest price gain over 12 months was for a suburb with a median house price of $845,000 and the third best performer was almost $6.6 million speaks volumes for the fact house prices are not limited to a particular price range.

TOP 10: Best median HOUSE price performance

Suburb Name Median value 1 year change 5 year change
Chain Valley Bay $844,832 16.8% 64.6%
Menangle Park $1,185,580 16.3% 140.7%
Bronte $6,583,805 15.3% 61.4%
Strathfield $4,472,079 14.3% 62.1%
Dulwich Hill $2,482,431 13.5% 48.9%
Enfield $2,397,145 13.5% 70.2%
Old Guildford $1,289,873 13.4% 61.4%
South Hurstville $2,007,587 12.8% 55.6%
Bondi Beach $4,815,488 12.7% 66.7%
Tempe $1,883,171 11.9% 43.6%

REINSW President and CEO and Director of BresicWhitney, Thomas McGlynn, said Sydney could not be viewed in isolation.

“Sydney is the country’s most complex property market with many microclimates within it, resulting in a mixed picture across the data.

“Values in Bronte for example, have likely been driven by tightly held, premium properties with water views, while growth in Dulwich Hill on the other hand, is likely an uplift as a result of transport and infrastructure developments,” he told API Magazine.

Among the bottom ten for declining house markets, it was a far more consistent picture with homes comfortably above the median $1,550,563 house price faring poorly. Seven of the top ten were priced in the two millions and all were above the median value.

BOTTOM 10: Worst median HOUSE price performance

Suburb Name Median value 1 year change 5 year change
Terrey Hills $2,589,203 -12.2% 11.1%
Marsfield $2,537,733 -6.4% 41.2%
South Turramurra $2,489,991 -6.3% 47.3%
Little Bay $2,825,086 -6.2% 30.1%
Kensington $3,551,754 -5.4% 37.8%
Avalon Beach $2,842,612 -5.1% 38.6%
West Ryde $2,230,945 -4.1% 37.5%
Alexandria $2,229,890 -3.3% 39.2%
North Rocks $1,891,070 -2.7% 47.4%
Maroubra $3,079,437 -2.7% 46.7%

The best performing unit markets over the past 12 months showed a clear disposition toward the affordable end of the market.

Only three of the best performing suburbs had a median price above $900,000, while all ten of the worst performing unit markets were above that price mark. The median unit price in Sydney is $880,777.

Allen Habbouchi, Principal Licensee – Sydney for aussieproperty.com, pointed to affordability issues holding back the pricier unit markets.

“The trend toward more affordable units likely reflects stronger demand from downsizers and first home buyers, especially given tighter lending conditions for high-value properties.

“Some higher-priced suburbs may have experienced a plateau after strong growth, making more affordable areas more attractive now.”

TOP 10: Best median UNIT price performance

Suburb Name Median value 1 year change 5 year change
Belrose $1,022,945 22.0% 36.8%
Moorebank $839,438 12.0% 12.8%
Belfield $883,278 11.9% 22.9%
Werrington $681,234 11.1% 36.7%
Willoughby $1,242,288 10.5% 21.9%
Beverly Hills $874,016 8.9% 23.6%
Lurnea $716,629 8.8% 37.8%
Lakemba $546,432 8.5% 19.8%
Casula $860,759 8.5% 30.6%
Condell Park $1,067,671 8.3% 41.1%

Arija McQuillan, Buyers Agent and founder of Ari Agency, said overseas migration was also shaping the Sydney unit market.

“Sydney is home to more and more primary residents immigrating from overseas and we are seeing more buyers subject to a tighter budget, which forces them to buy where they can afford and rent where they want to live.

“I have fielded a lot of enquiries from buyers with less than $1 million looking to rentvest in cheaper suburbs so they can still maintain a lifestyle in their ideal location.

“Some of the worst performers are too expensive for people to invest in so it would make sense that the growth in these areas is slow, allowing better purchasing power to those looking for their primary residence.”

BOTTOM 10: Worst median UNIT price performance

Suburb Name Median value 1 year change 5 year change
Kirribilli $1,643,133 -19.0% -19.1%
McMahons Point $1,406,086 -11.5% 6.1%
Gymea Bay $1,394,985 -9.7% 25.4%
Milsons Point $1,969,123 -9.4% 6.1%
Vaucluse $1,491,940 -9.3% 17.8%
Centennial Park $964,412 -9.2% 16.8%
Darling Point $2,462,080 -8.3% 20.2%
Cremorne Point $1,881,836 -8.0% 5.5%
Beecroft $974,271 -8.0% -7.0%
Kurraba Point $1,526,451 -7.8% 4.4%

Head of Research at Cotality, Eliza Owen, agreed the lower end of the unit market was heated.

“The diversity of markets in the top-performing lists reflects an inflection point in the housing cycle.

“In mid-to-late 2024, middle and low value segments of the Sydney housing market dominated growth, potentially because the combination of high interest rates, cost of living pressures and lower savings pushed buyers to traditionally more affordable markets.

“These include Tempe houses, which is at least relatively affordable for houses in the Inner West, LakembaBelfield and Chain Valley Bay in Wyong.

“Laced in with this though are very high-end markets starting to emerge in the top-performers list, like Bronte and Bondi Beach, because of changed conditions in 2025.

“Falling interest rates have historically been relatively quick to take effect in very high-end markets.

“At the low end of the league tables though, you still see the weight of affordability pressures affecting traditionally more expensive pockets of Sydney, and the longer-term trend shows high end units have been less appealing.”

More to market than deposit scheme

A variety of factors were driving the market, but the commentators broadly agreed that the Home Guarantee Scheme allowing first time buyers to pay just a 5 per cent deposit was not a big factor in Sydney.

“I would guess it has had very little impact,” Ms Owen said.

“It’s worth noting the scheme didn’t kick off until 1 October and the Sydney growth had already accelerated to 0.8 per cent in September.

Thomas McGlynn, President, REINSWThomas McGlynn, President of REINSW and CEO of BresicWhitney

“Ultimately we put the acceleration down to other factors like multiple rate cuts, growth in real incomes, tight supply levels and improved consumer sentiment.”

Mr McGlynn said price increases in Sydney are rarely the result of one incentive.

“They remain driven by deeper structural forces, particularly undersupply, across the lifestyle markets.

“Prices at the more affordable end may increase due to more competition between first-home buyers as a result of the scheme but the largest impacts right now are down to sentiment and the timeframe in which many first-home buyers can enter the market.

“We saw similar uplifts in sentiment and perceived opportunity following the interest rate cuts, however these proved to be ‘sugar hits’ rather than long-term shifts.

“More investors are returning to the Sydney market, however not with great force yet,” Mr McGlynn said.

Sydney’s 2026 hotspots

Given the somewhat eclectic performance of Sydney real estate over the last 12 months, where should property investors and prospective buyers be looking if they want to see their investment pay off in 2026 and beyond?

The four commentators API Magazine spoke to come from a range of real estate backgrounds, including data analysis and research, buyers agent, peak body leadership and sales.

For Ms Owen, there were options for all budgets.

“I would still place a bit of confidence in Lakemba, for houses or units, for another year.

“It’s one of the last affordable pockets for Sydneysiders and close proximity to the trendy Inner West makes it an increasingly desirable option for young renters and homebuyers, and the same goes for areas like Canterbury and Campsie, which are well located but still have some bang for buck.

“If you’ve got a big, big budget, the short-term capital growth opportunities seem to be in the North Eastern suburbs pocket of Sydney, with short-term growth currently accelerating in markets like Waverley, Bondi Beach, Bronte and Queens Park.

“Developable, rezoned areas are also good for sellers at the moment, with the likes of St Marys seeing strong sales results in anticipation of the new metro airport line and upzoned land.”

Government and private investment that was transforming parts of the city were the focus for Mr MGlynn.

“We are closely watching suburbs subject to new infrastructure and transport developments, like Dulwich Hill.

“These areas often see increases in new housing supply alongside this, presenting more opportunity for investors, buyers and tenants,

“Areas with a mix of established units and homes that are tightly held, like Strathfield or Willoughby, are likely to attract investor interest.”

Ms McQuillan said she usually advocates for blue chip locations close to the city, while Mr Habbouchi said he would suggest looking at emerging suburbs with ongoing infrastructure projects and good rental demand.

“Areas like ParramattaZetland, and Liverpool are benefiting from major developments like transport upgrades and urban renewal, which are expected to drive demand and appreciation amid broader Sydney market forecasts of 5to 8 per cent growth citywide in 2026,” Mr Habbouchi said.

 

Article Q&A

Which Sydney suburbs are tipped for the strongest property growth in 2026?

Analysts highlight affordable Inner West areas like Lakemba, Canterbury, and Campsie, as well as premium eastern suburbs such as Bondi Beach, Bronte, and Queens Park, for solid short-term capital growth.

Why are Sydney’s affordable suburbs performing better than high-end areas?

Rising interest rates and cost-of-living pressures have driven buyers toward lower-priced markets, while expensive areas have seen slower demand and plateauing prices.

What’s driving Sydney’s current property price trends?

Experts point to a combination of falling interest rates, limited housing supply, and improving buyer sentiment as the key factors lifting prices across the city.

Is Sydney property still a good investment in 2025–26?

Despite high entry costs, Sydney’s long-term fundamentals remain strong, particularly in areas linked to infrastructure upgrades and population growth.

By whatever metric you apply, the Perth property market is on a sustained burst of growth.

Whether it’s the last five years, during which dwelling values have risen by a nation-leading 81.9 per cent, or the latest quarterly data in which it leads the way with capital growth of 3.1 per cent, expectations that the market would stop breaking its own median home price records have proven mislaid.

Towards the end of 2024, the engine room of the Perth real estate market was the outer suburbs.

Back in November, the ten worst performers for house price movements were all inner suburban areas, including Mosman Park’s 7.7 per cent decline and South Perth’s 6.1 per cent house price slide.

The latest data reveals that growth is now more evenly spread.

Outer suburbs are still performing strongly but four of the top ten areas are now closer to the city centre, with South Perth particularly notable for its turnaround, according to Cotality.

Perth SA3 property price growthProperty prices in SA3 areas (larger than suburb category; source: Cotality)

The broadening of the Perth market to one spread more evenly across the city was a trend confirmed by Gabe Hagen, Residential Business Development Manager, Realmark.

“There’s no doubt we’re seeing growth become more evenly spread across Perth, and the numbers tell the story.

“For much of the post-COVID period, the sharpest rent and property price gains were concentrated in outer suburban corridors – places like BaldivisRockinghamWanneroo and Mandurah, where greenfield developments and new estates have been able to deliver stock to meet surging demand.

“Rental bond lodgements in these areas rose by 400 to 1,100 in just 18 months, highlighting how the outer fringe has shouldered the bulk of Perth’s growth.

“What’s changed in the past year is that the inner- and middle-ring suburbs, which had previously been lagging, are now showing renewed momentum.

“The loss of nearly 900 rental bonds in Perth City over the past year has effectively created scarcity right in the heart of the CBD – and scarcity is a key ingredient for future growth.

“This dynamic sets up the inner city for significant upside leading into 2026.

“Even Melville and BelmontVictoria Park, which have seen steady bond losses, remain attractive for their proximity to employment hubs and lifestyle amenities.

“The combination of falling stock and sustained demand suggests these inner-ring markets will deliver some of the strongest rental and capital growth into 2026,” Mr Hagen told API Magazine.

Top 10 for House Sale Price Growth

Rank Suburb Annual median house sale price (Aug 2025) Annual price growth (Aug 2025) 5-Year price growth (Aug 2025) Median selling days (Jun-Aug 2025)
1 Bateman $1,303,000 37.9% 72.5% 20
2 Ardross $1,765,000 33.2% 95.2% 18
3 Madeley $975,000 30.3% 74.1% 13
4 Trigg $2,300,000 27.8% 93.3% 15
5 Woodvale $1,120,000 25.4% 83.2% 9
6 Calista $600,000 25.0% 131.2% 12
7 Silver Sands $837,500 25.0% 99.4% 23
8 Woodlands $1,750,000 25.0% 90.2% 17
9 Aubin Grove $923,000 24.7% 79.6% 11
10 Midvale $655,000 24.5% 116.5% 7
Source: REIWA. Filtered for suburbs with a minimum of 28 house sales in the year to August 2025 as at 24 September 2025.

Among the hotspots to watch into 2026, according to Paul Wisby, Sales Representative for Bailey Devine Real Estate, were a basket of inner suburban areas.

“Areas like Mount LawleyMaylandsInglewoodBayswater and South Perth should all do well next year and are good examples of suburbs that blend amenity and lifestyle opportunities with easy access to infrastructure and employment hubs.”

Some signs of market cooling

Western Australia was the only state to record worsening affordability in the past quarter, although it remains the most affordable among the major mainland capitals.

WA also ranks second nationally for investor land loan growth (23 per cent) and new dwelling loan growth (14 per cent).

But elsewhere there are some hints that price growth won’t get out of hand and may even cool.

After three years of breakneck gains, Western Australia’s loan market is catching its breath.

Growth in homebuyer lending was flat at 0 per cent, with 40,760 loans issued.

Western Australia also leads the nation in external refinancing for both owner-occupiers and investors, with annual growth of 9 per cent and 26 per cent respectively.

“WA is a market that’s cooling and consolidating,” Money.com.au’s property expert Debbie Hays said.

“Home owners are choosing to improve their properties and optimise their mortgages, while some investors are still taking on new debt and chasing price growth while they can.

“Investor lending in WA is also subdued, rising 10 per cent to 25,178 loans over the year, below the national average.”

Perth’s median house price now sits at $881, 867, while units are at $624,821.

Top 10 for Unit Sale Price Growth

Rank Suburb Annual median unit sale price (Aug 2025) Annual price growth (Aug 2025) 5-Year price growth (Aug 2025) Median selling days (Jun-Aug 2025)
1 Bicton $770,000 43.9% 105.3% 8
2 Hamilton Hill $552,500 43.5% 104.6% 8
3 Doubleview $721,000 42.8% 80.3% 7
4 Bassendean $570,000 36.7% 88.1% 11
5 Mount Pleasant $1,130,000 34.5% 45.0% 64
6 Applecross $950,000 34.1% 55.7% 20
7 Bentley $560,000 33.3% 86.7% 11
8 Jolimont $765,000 32.5% 80.0% 5
9 North Fremantle $1,140,000 30.7% 50.5% 13
10 Cloverdale $510,000 29.1% 85.5% 16
Source: REIWA. Filtered for suburbs with a minimum of 28 unit sales in the year to August 2025 as at 24 September 2025.

Unit weekly rents are surprisingly close to those of houses, with the average weekly rent price sitting at $660 for units, just $40 below that for houses. Units are attracting an average rental yield of 5.5 per cent, compared to 4.0 per cent for houses.

Is boom-bust era over?

Julie Kelley, Global Sales and Marketing Manager, aussieproperty.com, said the Perth market had shown signs of breaking away from a boom and bust cycle dictated by the resources sector.

“In the five years that capital growth rates in Perth have outpaced the rest of the country, the iron ore price has fluctuated enormously, peaking around $230-240 per metric ton in mid-2021 before falling to approximately $100 per tonne by mid-2024 and since stabilising in the $100-110 range.

“In that time the city’s property prices have moved upwards independently of mineral price movements, suggesting other factors are now driving the market.

Cotality table of capital cities' five-year dwelling growth rates

Perth’s property market has massively outperformed the likes of Sydney and Melbourne over the past five years (source: Cotality).

“Perth is attracting new residents based on its great lifestyle and the relative affordability of property compared to other cities.

“WA is the fastest growing state or territory in Australia in terms of population growth, while continued housing supply constraints and high rental demand suggest there’s still room for upward real estate price movement, especially in well-positioned suburbs.”

Asked whether the Perth property market was at its peak, Jennifer Noye, Sales Executive, Edison Property, said it was unlikely to be the case.

“This is a question on everyone’s lips, especially the buyers.

“We expect the market will continue to rise, as we are currently experiencing record low number of listings.

“The government incentives will only bring more buyers to an already heated market, therefore, we believe there is still room to grow.

The growth seems to be in all areas of Perth, both outlying suburbs and inner city.

“Inner city suburbs are all achieving above the sellers’ expectations.

“There is just not enough property available to meet the high demand,” Ms Noye said.

 

Article Q&A

Which Australian city’s property market has performed best in the last five years?

Whether it’s the last five years, during which dwelling values have risen by a nation-leading 81.9 per cent, or the latest quarterly data in which it leads the way with capital growth of 3.1 per cent, expectations that the market would stop breaking its own median home price records have proven mislaid.

Where are property prices rising fastest in Perth?

Towards the end of 2024, the engine room of the Perth real estate market was the outer suburbs. Back in November, the ten worst performers for house price movements were all inner suburban areas, including Mosman Park’s 7.7 per cent decline and South Perth’s 6.1 per cent house price slide. The latest data reveals that growth is now more evenly spread. Outer suburbs are still performing strongly but four of the top ten areas are now closer to the city centre, with South Perth particularly notable for its turnaround.

What is the median property price in Perth?

Perth’s median house price now sits at $881, 867, while units are at $624,821.

How much does rent cost in Perth?

Unit weekly rents are surprisingly close to those of houses, with the average weekly rent price sitting at $660 for units, just $40 below that for houses. Units are attracting an average rental yield of 5.5 per cent, compared to 4.0 per cent for houses.

In a tight rental market the landlord temptation might be to squeeze out as much rent as possible but tenant expectations are rising, property standards are under scrutiny, and compliance requirements are increasingly strict.

Investors are being told this is a boom. In reality, it’s a bottleneck and unless you play it smart, you’ll likely feel the squeeze.

Australia’s rental markets aren’t just “tight.” They’re under serious strain, with vacancy rates at historic lows and tenant demand outpacing available housing in almost every major city and region.

From the outside, it might look like the perfect conditions for landlords and property investors, but the reality is far more complex.

Strong rents, stronger pressure

Yes, rental prices are rising and properties are leasing faster than ever. Brisbane, for example, has recorded rental increases of over 10 per cent in some inner and middle-ring suburbs, and regional areas aren’t far behind.

National vacancy rates are sitting around 1.1 per cent, well below the 2–3 per cent usually considered a balanced market.

But these figures only tell part of the story. A tight rental market isn’t always a profitable one. It’s a high-stakes environment where tenant expectations are rising, property standards are under scrutiny, and compliance requirements are increasingly strict.

From where I sit, this market rewards those who are proactive, well-informed and strategic, not those relying on luck or assumptions.

What’s fuelling the rental tightness?

Several forces are combining to create this pressure. Net overseas migration reached nearly 380,000 in the year to September 2024, returning to (and even surpassing) pre-pandemic levels. Most new arrivals are renters, at least initially, adding to already intense demand.

At the same time, the supply pipeline is very tight.

Construction delays, labour shortages, and elevated material costs have slowed the delivery of new housing. In some states, new dwelling starts have fallen well short of population growth. Add to that the hesitancy of some investors to buy in during a high interest rate environment, and the supply side continues to fall behind.

This imbalance is what defines a tight rental market: low vacancy, high demand, and limited supply.

Tenant behaviour: competition and caution

We’re seeing more tenants than ever applying for each available property. It’s not unusual to receive 20 to 30 applications within days of listing. Some are offering to pay above asking price or several months in advance just to secure a lease.

But it’s not just competition that’s changing, it’s also their expectations.

Tenants are more discerning, they’re prioritising well-maintained, energy-efficient homes. They’re also staying longer in leases when they can, avoiding the uncertainty and stress of trying to re-enter a competitive market.

It’s a clear signal to investors: presentation and maintenance are no longer optional. Even in a tight market, quality properties attract the best tenants and retain them.

Investor challenges: profit and pressure

For landlords, this environment presents a new kind of dilemma.

On the one hand, rents are rising. On the other, so are insurance premiums and maintenance costs.

Many investors are asking themselves: how much can I increase the rent without losing a good tenant? How do I manage repairs when trades are booked out for weeks? Should I upgrade the property, and if so, where will I get the best return?

There’s also regulatory pressure. In several states, reforms around rent increases, eviction processes, and minimum property standards are changing how landlords operate.

Navigating these without expert guidance adds to the administrative burden and increases risk.

Opportunities still exist, but they require strategy

Despite the challenges, tight rental markets also create strong opportunities for investors who take a long-term view.

Lower vacancy means fewer days on market. Higher demand means the ability to choose reliable, well-qualified tenants. Rising rents, if handled responsibly, can improve yield and cash flow.

But the key is not to overreach. Investors who focus on property condition, tenant relationships, and compliance are better positioned to weather any market shifts. Those who treat property management as a partnership, rather than a passive process, typically see stronger performance over time.

Beware: markets like these don’t last forever.

When supply eventually increases there will be greater scrutiny on which properties justify a premium and which fall to the bottom of the list.

The investors who succeed won’t be the ones who charged the highest rent in a hot market. They’ll be the ones who retained quality tenants, kept their properties competitive, and planned ahead.

The market is rewarding those who manage well, not just those who own property.

So, while tight rental conditions may sound like an open goal for investors, they’re anything but simple. Behind every strong rent figure is a balancing act and those who recognise that reality will be best placed to succeed, no matter what comes next.

Article Q&A

What is the national rental vacancy rate in Australia?

National vacancy rates are sitting around 1.1 per cent, well below the 2–3 per cent usually considered a balanced market.

Are rents still rising in Australia?

The monthly pace of rental growth eased back in May but still rose by 0.4 per cent, following three months of successive 0.6 per cent gains.

Why are rents still rising?

Several forces are combining to create this rental price pressure. Net overseas migration to Australia reached nearly 380,000 in the year to September 2024, returning to (and even surpassing) pre-pandemic levels. Most new arrivals are renters, at least initially, adding to already intense demand. At the same time, the supply pipeline is very tight. Construction delays, labour shortages, and elevated material costs have slowed the delivery of new housing. In some states, new dwelling starts have fallen well short of population growth.

The outer fringes of Melbourne are the sole drivers of the property market in the city, as buyers compete for affordable options but largely steer clear of apartments.

he broader Melbourne property market remains in the doldrums — despite ongoing forecasts of a revival —but the city’s outer suburbs are being underpinned by relative affordability.

In the year to April, inner Melbourne was a sea of red ink, with just 4 per cent of suburbs recording price growth, according to Cotality, formerly CoreLogic.

Yet for suburbs 20km or more from the CBD, 38 per cent of suburbs saw growth during the year, as stretched affordability pushed buyers further afield.

Cotality Research Director Tim Lawless said the trend was reflected nationally, as strong capital growth “clustered in city outskirts”, where home values remained “just” within reach for many Australians.

“Households are making pragmatic decisions in response to tighter borrowing capacity and higher mortgage costs,” Mr Lawless said.

“That’s pushed demand towards the lower quartile of the market, and it’s across the outer suburbs that this value-driven demand is translating into the strongest growth.

“The trend is visible in every capital city,” he said.

It has certainly been the case in BrisbaneSydney and Perth.

In Melbourne, the Hume, Frankston and Casey local government areas were “emerging as standout performers,” Mr Lawless said.

Over the year to 1 May, Tullamarine and Broadmeadows in the city’s north-west recorded the strongest price growth, at 1.9 per cent, taking the median dwelling value to $687,701.

Frankston on the Mornington Peninsula recorded the second highest price growth in the year, with dwellings rising 1.8 per cent to a median of $763,366.

Apartment oversupply

For Melbourne as a whole, prices grew 1.2 per cent in the three months to 1 June, but fell 1.2 per cent for the year.

Ashley Pollerd, Director of Melbourne-based buyers’ agency AJP Buyers Agents, said the relative affordability of Melbourne’s outer suburbs was drawing first home buyers and young couples.

“These (outer suburb) markets are well prices for first time buyers or upgraders including young families and those able to work from home and not needing to be in the city every day,” Mr Pollerd told Australian Property Investor Magazine.

He said the outer suburban markets were popular among investors seeking to buy houses, rather than apartments, which can suffer from oversupply, particularly in some inner-city markets.

“The outer suburbs, especially those well clear of the growth corridors of new supply, is why places such as Frankston and the Mornington Peninsula are attractive to owner-occupiers, tenants and investors,” Mr Pollerd said.

“They are priced well for investors including interstate buyers who are seeing growth value in Melbourne’s outer suburbs for houses.

According to Cotality, across Melbourne, the median dwelling value is $791,303 — down 4.5 per cent from its peak in March 2022 — with the prospect of growth drawing investors from interstate.

Markets such as Perth have become very hot whilst Melbourne offers an option to get in at the bottom of the property clock,” Mr Pollerd said.

The likelihood of significant further interest rate cuts and a shortage of supply would support future growth.

Mr Pollerd said Melbourne suburbs offering the best prospects for capital growth included Frankston; Ferntree Gully in the city’s outer east; Pascoe Vale in the city’s north; Cheltenham, about 18km south-east of the CBD; and Elwood, in the city’s inner south-east.

According to Cotality, across Melbourne, dwelling values have grown 43.8 per cent over the past decade, which was the lowest rate of growth of any major capital.

Yet gross rental yields in the city — the annual rent return as a proportion of a property’s value — were the second lowest in the nation behind only Sydney, tying with Brisbane and Adelaide, at 3.7 per cent.

“Melbourne has seen a sharp drop in annual rental growth, easing from 9.4 per cent to 2 per cent, while Sydney rents are now rising just 1.9 per cent per annum, the slowest annual rise since April 2021,” Mr Lawless said.

“Population growth, which is a proxy for housing demand, has fallen back to the decade average of 0.4 per cent per quarter.

“Less population growth should help to take some heat away from housing value growth, but there is still a substantial cumulative undersupply that has accrued over the past few years.”

Geoff Oxford, Director, Seachange Property, said houses in Frankston, Frankston South and Mornington priced between $600,000 and $1.2 million were “selling like hotcakes”.

“You just can’t get enough of that type of property,” Mr Oxford told API Magazine.

But it was a very different story at the top end of the market on the Mornington Peninsula, where government taxes, including land tax, vacancy taxes and short-term rental taxes were weighing heavily on the market.

“Houses that were selling in Mount Martha in 2021 for over $4 million are now selling for just over $3 million,” Mr Oxford said.

The number of people viewing more expensive properties were “down 80 per cent on last year”, with that market “almost dormant”.

 

 

Article Q&A

Where are property prices performing the best and worst in Melbourne?

In the year to April, inner Melbourne was a sea of red ink, with just 4 per cent of suburbs recording price growth, according to Cotality, formerly CoreLogic. Yet for suburbs 20km or more from the CBD, 38 per cent of suburbs saw growth during the year, as stretched affordability pushed buyers further afield.

Are Melbourne property prices rising?

For Melbourne as a whole, prices grew 1 per cent in the three months to 1 May, but fell 2.2 per cent for the year. According to Cotality, across Melbourne, the median dwelling value is $786,158 — down 5.4 per cent from its peak in March 2022 — with the prospect of growth drawing investors from interstate.

Property investors seeking capital growth in Brisbane will continue to make gains in the outer suburbs but other property types and hotspot areas are springing up.

Property owners looking for capital growth would have to be unlucky not to have enjoyed an increase in their home value in Brisbane.

Only 2 per cent of suburbs across the metropolitan region recorded a decline in dwelling values over the past 12 months.

Like elsewhere in Australia, the bulk of that price growth is occurring in the outer suburbs.

According to Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), values across the lower quartile of the Brisbane market are up 14.0 per cent over the past 12 months compared to a 4.8 per cent rise in values across the upper quartile.

Across the top 20 suburbs recording the highest annual gain in values, 17 were located at least 20km from the Brisbane GPO, with more than half (11) of the top 20 located within the Ipswich LGA.

 

Brisbane UNITS: Median Sales Data by annual change – March Qtr 2025

SUBURB QTRLY No. SALES QTRLY MEDIAN SALES QTRLY CHANGE ANNUAL No. SALES ANNUAL MEDIAN SALE 1YR CHANGE
Milton 18 $734,000 32.85% 120 $632,500 39.01%
East Brisbane 13 $741,500 (7.43%) 83 $697,000 35.34%
Greenslopes 24 $704,500 (9.10%) 97 $734,250 28.82%
Kelvin Grove 32 $651,000 (1.36%) 149 $635,000 28.67%
Lutwyche 24 $711,250 1.97% 124 $683,000 26.48%
Nundah 66 $710,000 5.97% 384 $630,111 26.30%
Richlands 23 $637,500 4.51% 119 $592,000 25.42%
Kedron 25 $645,000 (2.09%) 81 $650,000 25.00%
St Lucia 35 $740,000 (5.13%) 158 $751,500 24.65%
Chermside 53 $643,000 1.74% 253 $628,000 24.36%

Brisbane HOUSES: Median Sales Data by annual change – March Qtr 2025

SUBURB QTRLY No. SALES QTRLY MEDIAN SALES QTRLY CHANGE ANNUAL No. SALES ANNUAL MEDIAN SALE 1YR CHANGE
Brisbane City 21 $805,000 35.29% 76 $612,500 61.18%
Newstead 16 $811,500 (21.97%) 65 $942,500 48.66%
Sherwood 13 $1,455,000 (14.36%) 63 $1,680,000 35.76%
Richlands 11 $720,000 (17.86%) 52 $772,000 26.56%
Middle Park 15 $1,152,500 (3.15%) 64 $1,175,000 25.33%
Fortitude Valley 28 $680,000 32.04% 90 $595,000 25.26%
Upper Mount Gravatt 26 $1,210,000 3.64% 123 $1,195,000 24.48%
Moggill 18 $1,312,500 9.38% 89 $1,200,000 24.22%
Northgate 11 $1,500,000 14.50% 64 $1,283,750 22.26%
Chermside West 15 $1,130,000 7.62% 88 $1,100,000 21.88%

 

(Source: REIQ, for API Magazine)

The real estate affordability pressures that have driven buyers to seek value ever further from the city centre are showing no signs of abating and Tuesday’s (20 May) interest rate cut could fuel even greater demand among buyers for whom every dollar counts.

Yet, as Brisbane’s cheaper suburbs continue to propel the city’s 7.8 per cent annual median dwelling value growth (third to Perth’s 10 per cent and Adelaide’s 9.8 per cent), other market segments are emerging as potential new property hotspots.

Nationally, despite affordability issues, houses (up 1.1 per cent over past three months) continue to outperform units (0.5 per cent). Brisbane, like Perth, is an outlier where units (1.6 per cent) are providing stronger returns than houses (0.9 per cent).

On an annual basis, units are almost doubling house price growth, with the former up 12.8 per cent and the latter by 6.8 per cent.

Hotspot suburbs to watch

Buyers are still eager to be in closer proximity to the city, according to Nick Meredith, Buyers Agent, The Property Baron.

“Anything under $1.5 million in the inner suburbs is extremely competitive and getting harder to find and demand for entry level units is also very strong.

“But the growth in the outer suburbs will continue to be strong over the rest of this year and likely into 2026.

“If we have another 2 or 3 interest rate drops this year, buyers’ borrowing capacity will increase and people will be prepared to spend more and put fuel on the fire that will result in these markets growing at a similar rate to what has been happening over the last 12 months.”

Mr Meredith said any areas around the 2032 Olympic venues or those benefiting from the big infrastructure projects in the lead up to the Games will be areas to watch.

 

Article image
Brisbane has enjoyed uniform price growth but the outer suburbs are performing more strongly. (Source: Cotality)

 

Healthier rental yields were also attracting investors to some of Brisbane’s outlying suburbs.

Peter Ly, Principal Buyers Agent, Australian Property Experts, said he expected the rate of growth will start to slow down in these outer suburbs but was not going away.

“We are still years away from any market decline in these areas as population growth continues, infrastructure projects are completed, and rental demand keeps up.

“Brisbane’s outer suburbs offer better affordability and higher rental yields, both of which buyers are prioritising in this still-high interest rate environment.

“With the current interest rates and borrowing capacities stretching household budgets, buyers, both investors and home owners, are being left with no choice but to look for value in outer suburbs in and around the council areas of Ipswich, Logan, and parts of Moreton Bay.”

Six suburbs he identified as presenting the best value for investors seeking capital growth into 2026 and beyond were East IpswichRaceviewSpringfieldCaboolture SouthGriffin and Waterford.

Size matters with smaller home types

A similar view was expressed by Patrick Ryan, Director of Local Knowledge Buyers Agent in Brisbane, who said the Local Government Areas of Moreton Bay, Redlands and Ipswich are experiencing increased demand due to their affordability, strong local economies, good transport infrastructure, services and lifestyle amenities.

“The availability of larger land parcels in some of the outer suburbs when compared to the inner suburbs, healthy rental yields and strong potential for future capital growth also contribute to this performance,” he said.

Top 10 suburbs with the best rental yield in Brisbane

(Source OpenAgent)

The same cohort of prospective buyers who stand to gain most from falling interest rates could find their potential gains erased by rising property prices responding to the better financial conditions.

“Further interest rate cuts and first homebuyer government incentives will stimulate competition amongst first home buyers and young families, as well as investors, buying in the outer suburbs.

“Demand and affordability along with improvements to infrastructure, employment opportunities, services and lifestyle amenities will also help to maintain this trend in the short term.”

Brisbane’s infrastructure evolution was what buyers seeking capital growth should be evaluating, Mr Ryan added.

“Alongside suburbs set to benefit from the Brisbane 2032 Olympics, suburbs targeted in Brisbane City Council’s Suburban Renewal Precinct Plans also offer investors the opportunity to benefit from specific local investments aimed at enhancing lifestyle and liveability.

“If history is a guide, investing in these suburbs ahead of the curve can reap rewards, including WynnumMount Gravatt and Stones Corner.”

For houses, Mr Ryan said scarcity and land value will continue to drive upward price growth.

“As a result, detached post-war homes (renovated and unrenovated) in well-established Brisbane suburbs in the inner-eastern and bayside areas of Brisbane on land over 600sqm in the sub-$1.5 million bracket will be a solid performing market segment over the next year or so.”

For other building types, larger apartments and townhouses were the best option.

Downsizers and professionals will continue to target large boutique apartments in smaller complexes in inner-city suburbs of Brisbane, due to their facilities, accessibility and proximity to lifestyle amenities and services.

“Spacious three-plus bedroom townhouses in lower density developments located in desirable inner and middle ring suburbs of Brisbane with functional outdoor areas and an additional living area should see strong growth,” he said.

Article Q&A

Where in Brisbane are property prices rising fastest?

Property owners looking for capital growth would have to be unlucky not to have enjoyed an increase in their home value in Brisbane. Only 2 per cent of suburbs across the metropolitan region recorded a decline in dwelling values over the past 12 months. Like elsewhere in Australia, the bulk of that price growth is occurring in the outer suburbs.

Are units or houses the best investment in Brisbane?

Nationally, despite affordability issues, houses (up 1.1 per cent over past three months) continue to outperform units (0.5 per cent). Brisbane, like Perth, is an outlier where units (1.6 per cent) are providing stronger returns than houses (0.9 per cent). On an annual basis, units are almost doubling house price growth, with the former up 12.8 per cent and the latter by 6.8 per cent.

 

Three-bedroom apartments are meeting a growing demand from numerous segments of the property buying market, from downsizers to young families and first home buyers, but supply is scarce.

Over the past five years, houses have statistically outperformed units in every capital city across Australia.

As a result, houses are often seen as the safer and superior investment.

But analysing the market across all major cities, I’ve observed an emerging and promising shift: the growing appeal and performance of three-bedroom, family friendly units.

While two-bedroom units remain abundant, the demand for more spacious and practical living has become apparent.

Three-bedroom floor plan
Three or more bedroom houses make up about 90 per cent of the market for house listings, whereas for units, it is less than 30 per cent.

A new segment of buyers is now competing for a limited supply of three-bedroom units, particularly in lifestyle locations and areas close to the coast.

First home buyers who have been priced out of the detached housing market are seeking alternatives that offer room to grow, not just a stepping stone property.

Likewise, downsizers, particularly empty nesters, are selling the family home but still want sufficient space for children, grandchildren or visiting guests.

What I’m seeing, in particular is increasing competition from a diverse pool of buyers, not just apartment hunters, but also those traditionally in the market for villas or townhouses.

Three-bedroom units, especially those designed with families in mind, are becoming a serious consideration. In my valuations, I’ve seen notable demand in coastal suburbs and lifestyle pockets that attract millennials and young families.

These buyers are seeking access to lifestyle, community and amenities without the million-dollar price tag of a freestanding home.

To many of them, proximity to a beach, park or cafe precinct is seen as their backyard. As such I’ve seen a healthy increase in market value.

 

Too many cookie-cutter apartments

Not just any three-bedroom unit will do. To meet demand and achieve strong market performance, these properties must meet a certain standard.

Family-friendly doesn’t just mean three bedrooms on paper, it means functional design.

Ideally, the configuration includes three genuine bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a double car space. Outdoor space is also crucial a decent sized balcony that can comfortably fit a BBQ and a small table setting. It’s the little details that set a unit apart and make it feel like a home.

The market is telling us what it wants. Yet much of the current high and medium-density development continues to focus on cookie-cutter two-bedroom apartments that flood the market and lack long term desirability.

There is a clear opportunity here for developers to shift gears and meet this growing demand head on.

If we start designing and building more family friendly apartments, not only could we better serve the changing needs of buyers, but we could also contribute to addressing the housing crisis in a meaningful and sustainable way.

For governments and policymakers, the focus should not just be on incentivising buyers to purchase new for the sake of it, but rather on encouraging developers to build the types of homes that people actually want to live in long term.

Family-friendly apartment design is not a niche; it’s a growing segment that represents the real-life demands of modern Australian households.

In the race to solve housing supply and affordability, let’s not just build more. Let’s build better. Three-bedroom, family-friendly units, well designed and well located, might just be a big part of the answer.

Article Q&A

What percentage of new units have three bedrooms?

Three or more bedroom houses make up about 90 per cent of the market for house listings, whereas for units, it is less than 30 per cent.

A great divide has emerged in the Sydney property market when it comes to price growth but will the gulf between the inner and outer suburbs continue into 2026?

A divide in the Sydney property market has evolved into a major gulf.

Three quarters of suburbs within five kilometres of central Sydney have recorded property prices falls in the past 12 months.

A complete reversal in fortunes is playing out in the more affordable outer areas, with four in every five suburbs more than 20 kilometres from the Sydney GPO clocking up price gains.

It’s a scenario that is playing out in a similar pattern around the country but Sydney’s far higher property prices have made the trend more emphatic in the Harbour City.

Reinforcing the extent of the great divide, all of the top 20 suburbs for annual growth were at least 20km from the CBD, with FairfieldLiverpool and Blacktown LGAs dominating the city’s top 20 list.

Heat map of Sydney property price movements
The areas with the highest property price growth radiate away from central Sydney. (Source: Cotality)

 

New Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) data confirms the nation’s strongest housing conditions are concentrated in the fringes of each capital city.

The lower quartile of the housing market has led capital growth over the past 12 months, reflecting heightened demand for more affordable homes as buyers navigate continued serviceability constraints and stretched affordability metrics.

With the median priced property in Australia now out of reach for the median income earner, who would need to dedicate over half of their income to a mortgage (after paying a 20 per cent deposit), buyers are being forced to the fringes.

That situation is more pronounced in Australia’s largest and most expensive property market.

Jason Simoes, Director, XS Property, said the outer suburbs are offering better value per square metre, larger land sizes, and often more modern housing stock.

“Additionally, infrastructure investment across LGAs like Fairfield, Liverpool and Blacktown is improving transport links and amenities, helping to close the housing gap between inner and outer areas.”

He identified the five areas that stood to be the main beneficiaries of this investment in terms of delivering more capital growth over the next few years.

Sydney’s highest 12-month value growth (dwellings)

Sydney's highest 12-month value growth - Dwellings

Seven Hills is benefiting from the ripple effect out of Blacktown and solid transport links.

Campbelltown is being boosted by major infrastructure plans and urban renewal projects, while Riverstone has strong population growth and is part of the North West Growth Area.

Kingswood, close to Western Sydney University and Nepean Hospital, is attracting tenants and owner-occupiers, which is a lure for property investors.

“Closer to the city, Belmore in the Inner South-West is still relatively affordable, with increasing appeal as buyers look for value within 15km of the CBD.”

Sydney values remain 1.1 per cent below their September 2024 high but 81 per cent of suburbs 20km or more from Sydney’s GPO recorded annual gains, compared with only 26 per cent of those within 5km.

Greater competition for these appreciating outer suburban homes and the newer, more modern homes would continue to drive prices higher, according to Allen Habbouchi, Principal Licensee – Sydney, aussieproperty.com.

“This shift in demand often contributes to heightened competition and subsequent price growth in these more affordable markets.

 

“Outer suburbs often provide larger homes, more land, and access to greener spaces, which appeal to families and individuals seeking a higher quality of life, especially with the rise of remote work.

“Sydney’s population growth and urban sprawl have led to increased demand for housing in outer areas, supporting strong market performance, along with the changes in lifestyle preferences, especially post-pandemic, that have increased demand for properties outside the city centre.”

Mr Habbouchi said investors see outer suburbs as offering higher potential for growth and better rental yields, fuelling further activity and the need for more development in these areas to cope with the lack of properties currently available in Sydney.

For buyers looking for price gains in 2025 and beyond, he said major infrastructure upgrades at state and council level meant Parramatta’s outskirts, including MerrylandsMays HillPendle Hill and Granville, Blacktown and Rouse Hill, were the standouts.

 

Inner city comeback on the cards

With more than 650,000 new residents expected to move to Sydney by 2034, strong population growth is fuelling long-term demand for residential property.

When interest rates move, higher priced property markets have proven to be the most responsive.

With interest rates expected fall throughout 2025, the more expensive inner suburbs or Sydney could be the first to experience increased demand and price pressure.

Post-Covid, the following graph highlights the catch-up potential of the city’s top quartile of the real estate market.

Property prices according to price range in Sydney
Prices in Sydney’s top quartile remain below the post-Covid peak.

 

Rhiannan Jenkins, Director, Sourced Property, said Sydney’s inner suburbs have seen phenomenal price growth that has driven those wanting a home to look for alternatives but said the inner suburban areas could soon regain their lost momentum.

“Scarcity is one of the biggest drivers of property price growth and when supply is limited—such as a character-filled Newtown terrace built in the early 1900s or a large parcel of land in Marrickville above 500sqm—demand tends to increase, simply because these types of properties are no longer being replicated.

“While we can increase housing supply through apartment developments, this tends to dilute scarcity in that particular category, making the existing stock of unique or character properties even more valuable over time.

“By contrast, in the outer suburbs, the more greenfield estates that are developed, the more uniform the housing becomes and this homogeneity leads to more choice for buyers and could mean less bargaining power for sellers.”

The quest for more affordable property options has not translated into higher unit prices.

The past three months have seen the value of houses rise by 1.1 per cent across the combined capitals, more than double the 0.5 per cent lift recorded across the unit sector.

This trend is mostly being driven by Sydney, where house values were up 1.4 per cent over the rolling quarter compared with a 0.3 per cent fall in unit values over the same period.

“In my experience, areas and property types that are genuinely scarce tend to experience stronger demand,” Ms Jenkins said.

“Over the long term, inner-city suburbs are likely to see stronger price growth—driven by factors such as scarcity, desirability and limited supply.”

 

Article Q&A

Where in Sydney are property prices performing the strongest?

Three quarters of suburbs within five kilometres of central Sydney have recorded property prices falls in the past 12 months. A complete reversal in fortunes is playing out in the more affordable outer areas, with four in every five suburbs more than 20 kilometres from the Sydney GPO clocking up price gains.

Which property markets are delivering the highest capital growth in Australia?

The nation’s strongest housing conditions are concentrated in the fringes of each capital city. The lower quartile of the housing market has led capital growth over the past 12 months, reflecting heightened demand for more affordable homes as buyers navigate continued serviceability constraints and stretched affordability metrics.

 

The Australian Taxation Office is on the warpath and property investors need to be prepared.

Early in 2025, the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) announced a major compliance crackdown on property investors, launching an extensive data-matching program designed to identify tax non-compliance.

Over the next three years, the ATO will collect rental bond data from more than 2.2 million landlords, tenants and property managers twice annually. The program specifically targets underreported rental income, unlodged tax returns, and inaccurate deduction claims.

With this heightened scrutiny, landlords who fail to maintain accurate records or meet their tax obligations could face audits and financial penalties.

Landlords who take proactive steps to ensure their financial records are accurate and up-to-date can avoid unnecessary stress and financial losses.

Understanding the ATO’s compliance focus

The ATO’s latest compliance initiative builds on its ongoing efforts to ensure landlords are meeting their tax obligations.

With access to rental bond data, tax officials can now cross-check information reported in tax returns against actual rental transactions.

This initiative helps the ATO identify cases where rental income has been underreported, properties have not been declared, or deductions have been claimed incorrectly.

This increased oversight means landlords must take extra care when lodging their returns.

Even minor errors like failing to report rental income from a short-term lease or mistakenly claiming a repair as a capital improvement can lead to an audit and result in penalties.

 

Common mistakes that trigger an ATO audit

Property investors must be aware of common tax errors that could raise red flags with the ATO. These include:

Deducting interest on personal loans rather than those directly related to the investment property.

Claiming 100 per cent of deductions for a property that is only partially rented out.

Any rental incentives, including rent reductions or insurance payouts for lost rental income, must be reported.

Travel deductions for rental property inspections are no longer allowed for most investors.

Repairs are deductible immediately, but capital improvements must be depreciated over time. Incorrect classification can result in compliance issues.

 

The hidden risk for landlords

One of the most overlooked areas of tax compliance among property investors is depreciation.

According to BMT Tax Depreciation data, 66 per cent of investment properties have undergone renovations or upgrades. Yet, many landlords fail to claim their full depreciation entitlements, leaving thousands of dollars in unclaimed deductions each year.

Depreciation is one of the most valuable tax deductions available to property investors, as it allows them to offset the cost of wear and tear on their investment properties.

Calculating depreciation correctly requires specialised knowledge of tax legislation and property structures. Many landlords either miss out on deductions for renovations completed by previous owners or fail to properly document upgrades they have made themselves.

To claim depreciation accurately and maximise tax savings, landlords must engage a registered quantity surveyor who can prepare a comprehensive depreciation schedule that aligns with ATO guidelines.

This document serves as crucial evidence in the event of an audit, substantiating depreciation claims and reducing the risk of errors in tax submissions.

 

Key steps to remain audit-proof

With the ATO’s expanded data-matching program actively monitoring rental property compliance, landlords need to take proactive measures to protect themselves from potential audits and penalties. Here are three key steps every property investor should follow:

Ensure that all rental income is declared, including income from short-term rentals like Airbnb. Be aware of special conditions that apply to non-resident landlords and ensure compliance with relevant tax legislation.

Keep detailed records, understand that repairs are immediately deductible while capital improvements are depreciated over time, and claim depreciation for both the building and eligible assets. Maintain clear records of all expenses related to the investment property.

Only specialists, like quantity surveyors, are recognised by the ATO for providing compliant depreciation schedules. A detailed schedule ensures landlords do not miss out on significant tax deductions and provides documented proof in case of an audit.

Landlords who fail to maintain accurate records or claim deductions correctly risk not only financial penalties but also the stress and time associated with an ATO audit.

The latest compliance crackdown serves as a timely reminder for investors to review their financial reporting processes and take action to protect themselves.

By implementing strong record-keeping practices, accurately reporting rental income, and securing a professionally prepared depreciation schedule, landlords can ensure they remain audit-proof while maximising the benefits of property investment.

 

 

Both sides of politics are turning their sights against foreign property buyers, but will a ban have any impact on the housing crisis?

Political posturing over the housing crisis has continued, with the Federal Labor Government undermining the Opposition’s stance on banning foreign property investors from buying established homes by adopting the same policy.

Foreign investors are already barred from buying existing homes but are allowed exceptions for some circumstances, like moving to Australia for work or study.

In 2022/23, foreign investors accounted for just 5,360 residential real estate purchases, of which only a third were existing dwellings.

The Albanese Government this week announced it will ban foreign investors from buying established homes for at least two years and crack down on foreign land banking.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers had described the same policy stance of Opposition Leader Peter Dutton as “unhinged” but has since changed his tune.

“It’s a minor change, but a meaningful one because we know that every effort helps in addressing the housing challenge we’ve inherited.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers

Treasurer Jim Chalmers

“We’re banning foreign purchases of established dwellings from 1 April 2025, until 31 March 2027 (and) a review will be undertaken to determine whether it should be extended beyond this point.

“The ban will mean Australians will be able to buy homes that would have otherwise been bought by foreign investors,” Mr Chalmers said.

Julie Kelley, Global Sales and Marketing Manager – SMATS Group of companies, said the changes would be ineffectual in contributing anything relevant to the housing crisis.

“This is little more than a political play of words.

“FIRB essentially restricts foreign buyers from purchasing established properties, although buyers may apply for exemptions.

“Foreign investors account for only a small margin of buyers and the new rules won’t make a scrap of difference.

“This is political nonsense on both sides of politics trying to win votes by playing the anti-foreigner card.”

“The percentage of foreign investors buying property in Australia isn’t huge and they are already paying colossal government fees in excess of the purchase price and stamp duty.”

Supporting Ms Kelley’s assertion about foreign buyers paying much higher entry costs, a local buying a $1.2 million Sydney property would pay the same $48,529 stamp duty as a foreign buyer. But the latter would also incur a whopping $96,0000 surcharge purchaser duty expense.

The ban has been branded irrelevant given the most significant proportion of foreign buying today is actually migrants becoming Australians and buying a place to live.

Ravin Chatlani, Director of Taxation, Australasian Taxation Services, said he didn’t believe it would make a big difference in the market given temporary residents can still buy brand new properties in Australia.

“My thoughts have always been that solving the supply issues and the time it takes to deliver more housing stock is more crucial than measures to restrict demand.”

In addition to the purchasing ban, Mr Chalmers added that the government was cracking down on land banking by foreign investors to free up land to build more homes more quickly.

“Foreign investors are subject to development conditions when they acquire vacant land in Australia to ensure that it is put to productive use within reasonable timeframes.

“The Government is focused on making sure these rules are complied with and identifying any investors who are acquiring vacant land, not developing it while prices rise and then selling it for a profit.”

The ATO and Treasury would be given $8.9 million over four years from 2025–26 and $1.9 million ongoing from 2029–30 to implement an audit program and enhance their compliance approach to target land banking by foreign investors.

WA political parties hacking away at stamp duty

Housing is also a hot political potato at the state level.

With an election looming on 8 March on Western Australia, the sitting Labor Government announced on Tuesday (18 February) that if elected they will raise the stamp duty exemption threshold from $450,000 to $500,000 and raise the concession threshold from $600,000 to $700,000 in Perth Metro and up to $750,000 in regional WA.

The Liberals had previously announced that if elected they will raise the stamp duty exemption thresholds from $450,000 to $550,000 and raise the concession threshold from $600,000 to $700,000.

Labor also announced they will raise the stamp duty threshold for first home buyers on land purchases from $300,000 to $350,000 and give a stamp duty discount up to $450,000.

A further $20.6 million was included in Tuesday’s announcement by Labor to expand stamp duty exemptions for new home purchased off-the-plan and under construction.

The Nationals went early with a policy to completely abolish stamp duty for first home buyers. But they did not announce any changes to exemptions on off-plan and under construction homes.

“Master Builders CEO Matthew Pollock said stamp duties are “amongst the worst taxes a government can levy on homeowners.”

“Every report on stamp duty shows it’s a bad and unfair tax that creates high economic loss, reduces labour mobility, and hits low-income households harder than high income households.

“Stamp duty is a major barrier for many families hoping to get on the property ladder and can make up as much as 20 per cent of the upfront cost of buying a new home.

“Stamp duty is a major financial handbrake on people looking to move.

“It’s a barrier to attracting talent into the state, or for people to move to communities where their skills are in high demand, including the builders and tradies we need to build more homes.”

Article Q&A

How many Australian residential properties are bought by foreigners?

In 2022/23, foreign investors accounted for just 5,360 residential real estate purchases, of which only a third were existing dwellings.

Are foreigners allowed to buy residential property in Australia?

The Albanese Government has announced it will ban foreign investors from buying established homes for at least two years and crack down on foreign land banking.